CRI DEEP HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS
Caymanas Park — Saturday, February 21, 2026
10-Race Card | Total Purse: $8,370,000
Feature: The Chairman's Trophy (Grade I) — Race 8, $2,000,000
CARD OVERVIEW
| Race | Time | Distance | Purse | Conditions | Expert Pick(s) | CRI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 11:35 AM | 5½F Round | $1,050,000 | Maiden Condition NB3YO Fillies | CHARMING CHATERBOX | 58.4% |
| R2 | 12:20 PM | 6F Round | $860,000 | 3YO&UP Claiming ($1M–$800K) | EAZY PEAZY / GREAT WAYNE | 72.5% / 72.3% |
| R3 | 12:55 PM | 7½F Round | $750,000 | Rest All V NB4YO&UP (NW2) | NEBUCHADNEZZAR / SLAM SHARP | 65.9% / 65.3% |
| R4 | 1:35 PM | 7F Round | $800,000 | Rest All III NB5YO&UP (NW4) | HICKORY SLIM / BLU SENSATION | 67.6% / 66.8% |
| R5 | 2:15 PM | 5F Round | $600,000 | 5YO&UP Opt Clm ($200K)/NB6YO&UP (NW2) | STORM BOY / STEIN | 57.3% / 56.6% |
| R6 | 2:55 PM | 7F Round | $730,000 | Maiden Condition NB4YO&UP | PRINCE ZAYDEN / REPORTABLE OFFENSE | 54.2% / 52.9% |
| R7 | 3:35 PM | 5F Straight | $720,000 | Rest All V NB5YO&UP (NW2) | BELLEZA GRIS | 67.1% |
| R8 | 4:15 PM | 7½F Round | $2,000,000 | The Chairman's Trophy (G.I) — Graded Stakes | BARNABY(USA) | 92.9% |
| R9 | 4:55 PM | 5F Straight | $1,010,000 | 3YO&UP Claiming ($1.5M–$1.2M) | EMPEROROFTHECATS | 90.0% |
| R10 | 5:35 PM | 5F Straight | $790,000 | 3YO&UP Opt Clm ($500K–$400K) | No Expert Pick (All Contenders) | 64.0% (top) |
KEY THEMES
Dominant Banker Opportunity in Race 8: BARNABY(USA) carries a CRI rating of 92.9% in the $2,000,000 Chairman's Trophy (G.I), the strongest single-horse reading on the card. His fair odds of approximately 1/13 against a morning line of 3/5 confirm an overlay, making him the card's standout selection and a mandatory anchor in all multi-race exotic wagers.
Back-to-Back Straight Course Blockbusters: Races 9 and 10 are both run on the straight five-furlong course, where draw position is statistically decisive. EMPEROROFTHECATS (PP4, 90.0%) sits in the proven middle draw zone in Race 9, while Race 10 presents a wide-open contender puzzle with no expert pick and draw-position variance creating real value opportunities.
Twin Expert Pick Races Dominate the Mid-Card: Races 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each feature two expert picks in near-dead-heat CRI% proximity. This pattern signals genuine competitive balance between top selections and demands exacta/trifecta attention rather than single-horse win plays.
Maiden Races Bookend the Card with Significant First-Time Equipment: Races 1 and 6 are both maiden contests featuring multiple horses debuting on Lasix for the first time (L1). First-time Lasix at Caymanas historically improves performance and should elevate the profiles of CHARMING CHATERBOX, IMAGINEARIUM, RUN VILLE RUN, PRINCE ZAYDEN, and GREYT MAGNUM materially above their prior form lines.
Trainer Anthony Nunes Commands Dual Interest: Nunes saddles BARNABY(USA) in the Grade I feature (Race 8), NEBUCHADNEZZAR in Race 3, KUSMI in Race 3, and IMAGINEARIUM in Race 1. His stable appears in top form and connections bettors should track his runners throughout the card.
RACE 1
Dedicated to: Mrs. Karen Parsard — Champion Breeder 2025
1RACE OVERVIEW
Race: 1 of 10 — Post Time 11:35 AM
Distance & Course: 5½ Furlongs, Round Course
Purse: $1,050,000
Conditions: Maiden Condition — Non-Black Book, 3-Year-Old Fillies
Field Size: 12 runners
Race Tag: Regular — Single Expert Pick at 58.4%
Surface Note: Round course. Draw position carries standard round-course relevance; inside posts can be advantageous over 5½ furlongs at Caymanas Park with a prompt beginning.
This is a wide-open maiden filly sprint to kick off the card. The majority of the field is either first-out or has shown limited ability in prior starts. The race is anchored by CHARMING CHATERBOX (PP2), an unraced Successful Native bay who draws the expert pick at 58.4% — a solid but not dominant figure, indicating the race is genuinely competitive. Equipment upgrades, particularly first-time Lasix on four horses, inject meaningful uncertainty. Pace will be contested, and fillies breaking for the first time represent an inherent handicapping wildcard.
2CONTENDER PROFILES
CHARMING CHATERBOX — Post 2, Weight 126 lbs / 57.2 kg
CRI Rating: 58.4% — Expert Pick
Morning Line: 2/1 (Confidence: 95%)
Form: Unraced — Nice looking to improve
Connections: Tevin Foster + Robert Pearson
Equipment: L1 (First-time Lasix)
Key Angle: Unraced Successful Native bay with the highest trainer/jockey confidence rating on the board at 95%; first-time Lasix adds a performance catalyst on debut.
IMAGINEARIUM — Post 6, Weight 126 lbs / 57.2 kg
CRI Rating: 50.4% — Contender
Morning Line: 3/1 (Confidence: 92%)
Form: Unraced — Savoy Stomp bay, showing good work, scope
Connections: Tyrese Anderson + Anthony Nunes
Equipment: T, L1 (Tongue Tie + First-time Lasix)
Key Angle: Anthony Nunes-trained debut runner with strong morning works and dual equipment additions; the Tongue Tie + first-time Lasix combination is an aggressive preparation signal.
RUN VILLE RUN — Post 5, Weight 126 lbs / 57.2 kg
CRI Rating: 46.9% — Contender
Morning Line: 4/1 (Confidence: 90%)
Form: Unraced — Shackeville chestnut, dam was in the Classics
Connections: Omar Walker + Alford Brown
Equipment: T, &, L1 (Tongue Tie + Figure 8 + First-time Lasix)
Key Angle: Classic bloodline on the dam's side; triple equipment package on debut suggests stable is taking this seriously and expecting improvement off any maiden run.
MY FRIEND MICKI — Post 4, Weight 122 lbs / 55.3 kg (Apprentice allowance from 126; listed 117, declared 122)
CRI Rating: 44.9% — Contender
Morning Line: 5/2 (Confidence: 93%)
Form: Finished 3 lengths 4th to Victorious Links; placed behind next — has a race under her belt
Connections: Dane Dawkins + Gary Griffiths
Equipment: C, L (Cheek Pieces + Lasix)
Key Angle: The only runner with prior race experience in this field; finished a creditable fourth in her debut. Cheek pieces added for this second run suggest connections expect a forward move with the benefit of experience.
ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS — Post 11, Weight 126 lbs / 57.2 kg
CRI Rating: 35.8% — Contender
Morning Line: 9/2 (Confidence: 75%)
Form: Unraced — Aveenu Malcainu bay, leggy, scope, described as a good sort
Connections: Bebeto Harvey + Barrington Bernard
Equipment: L1 (First-time Lasix)
Key Angle: Physical description of a leggy, scopey individual suggests a filly who may improve significantly with racing distance and time; Lasix on debut is a positive for a horse with upside potential.
3PACE ANALYSIS
With 12 maidens over 5½ furlongs on the round course, pace shape is difficult to project with precision. Most entrants are unraced, making early pace tendencies speculative. However, several factors are identifiable:
Likely early movers: MY FRIEND MICKI (PP4) showed positional racing ability in her debut. The QG note for IMAGINEARIUM (PP6) implies she has worked well, and CHARMING CHATERBOX (PP2) from an inside gate should be in a position to press or lead early.
Post position advantage: PP2 and PP4 are inside runners who can sit forwardly without expending excessive energy negotiating the round turn. PP5 and PP6 are also favorably placed for a 5½-furlong contest.
Likely off the pace: ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS from PP11 and SONADOR from PP12 are likely to encounter wider run patterns. The outside draw over a short-ish round trip is a disadvantage if pace is contested.
Pace verdict: Moderate early pace expected given the maiden nature of the field. A horse with tactical speed from an inside draw — specifically CHARMING CHATERBOX and MY FRIEND MICKI — stands to benefit from setting or pressing a comfortable pace.
4CLASS & FORM ANALYSIS
This is the lowest rung on the conditions ladder — a maiden condition race restricted to 3-year-old fillies with no prior wins. The class hierarchy within the field is essentially determined by breeding, physical appearance, and morning works rather than race record.
CHARMING CHATERBOX: Successful Native sire. This sire has produced winners at Caymanas Park. Trainer Robert Pearson has a respectable record with debut runners.
MY FRIEND MICKI: The most form-experienced filly in the field. Her prior run — a four-length fourth — was against a winner (Victorious Links) and the "behind next" comment suggests she ran in creditable company for a first start. Second-start improvement is a reliable pattern in Jamaican maidens.
RUN VILLE RUN: Dam's Classic background adds a layer of class. Shackeville sire is middle-distance oriented, so fitness at 5½ furlongs may be the question.
IMAGINEARIUM: Savoy Stomp progeny with scope and good works — upside potential is real, though unproven.
ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS: Aveenu Malcainu-bred; at 35.8% she is a moderate contender, but the physical description ("leggy, good sort") implies a filly who improves sharply with seasoning.
Several others — QUEEN MAJESTY, GULFSTREAM CAT, MISS VERONICA, and SHE'S IDEAL — have either shown nothing in prior races or are flagged as needing the run. These are effectively throwouts in a handicapping context.
5DRAW ANALYSIS
Round course, 5½ furlongs. Inside draws are generally favorable at this distance at Caymanas Park as horses have less ground to travel around the turn.
PP2 (CHARMING CHATERBOX): Excellent inside draw. Gets the rail run and can dictate terms early.
PP4 (MY FRIEND MICKI): Very good. Close to the rail without being buried on the inside; clean break gives a comfortable run.
PP5 (RUN VILLE RUN): Good draw. Three slots off the rail still benefits from a forward position.
PP6 (IMAGINEARIUM): Acceptable. Sits just outside the prime inside group but still within manageable ground-loss territory.
PP11 (ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS): Disadvantaged. Wide draw means additional ground covered, which is particularly costly in a 5½-furlong sprint. She will need a fast break and fast early pace to be effective.
6CONNECTIONS ANALYSIS
Tevin Foster / Robert Pearson (CHARMING CHATERBOX): Foster is one of Caymanas Park's leading riders and sits atop the jockey standings. His selection on this unraced debut filly strongly implies the stable has identified her as their best chance. Pearson is a consistent mid-tier trainer. The 95% confidence reading from the QG sheet is the highest in this race.
Tyrese Anderson / Anthony Nunes (IMAGINEARIUM): Nunes is the Champion Trainer and consistently produces well-prepared debut runners. Anderson is a capable apprentice who benefits from the 3-pound allowance. The combination of a top stable and first-time equipment is a meaningful angle.
Omar Walker / Alford Brown (RUN VILLE RUN): Walker is a competent senior rider. Brown is a reliable conditioner. The triple equipment package on debut tells the story — this horse needs help controlling herself, but the stable expects her to run.
Dane Dawkins / Gary Griffiths (MY FRIEND MICKI): Dawkins is a high-caliber jockey. Griffiths' record with second-start maiden runners is strong. The addition of cheek pieces for the second run is a classic Griffiths training move.
Bebeto Harvey / Barrington Bernard (ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS): Harvey is a senior, experienced pilot. Bernard is a capable trainer. The CRI% of 35.8% reflects modest confidence but the physical description of the filly leaves room for upside.
7VALUE ASSESSMENT
Fair odds formula: (100 / CRI%) - 1
| Horse | CRI% | Fair Odds | Morning Line | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARMING CHATERBOX | 58.4% | ~0.71/1 | 2/1 | |
| IMAGINEARIUM | 50.4% | ~0.98/1 | 3/1 | |
| RUN VILLE RUN | 46.9% | ~1.13/1 | 4/1 | |
| MY FRIEND MICKI | 44.9% | ~1.23/1 | 5/2 | UNDERLAY |
| ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS | 35.8% | ~1.79/1 | 9/2 |
CHARMING CHATERBOX at 2/1 represents a genuine overlay. Her fair odds are approximately 7/10; the morning line of 2/1 is significantly more generous than her CRI% warrants.
MY FRIEND MICKI at 5/2 is a mild underlay. Her fair odds of approximately 5/4 are shorter than the 5/2 ML implies. However, the ML confidence reading of 93% is extremely high for a horse sitting at 44.9% CRI. This anomaly may reflect the QG's belief in her second-start improvement potential.
IMAGINEARIUM at 3/1 and RUN VILLE RUN at 4/1 are both overlays with favorable morning line prices relative to their fair odds.
8RISK FACTORS
Maiden Unpredictability: The primary risk in this race is the maiden nature of the field. Multiple unraced fillies introduce behavioral and physical unknowns that even the most precise handicapping cannot fully mitigate.
First-Time Lasix on Multiple Horses: While first-time Lasix is generally positive, its effect varies by individual. CHARMING CHATERBOX, IMAGINEARIUM, RUN VILLE RUN, and ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS all debut on Lasix, making the relative boost difficult to rank precisely.
Wide Draw for ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS (PP11): At 5½ furlongs on the round course, an outside post is a genuine handicap. Even if she runs her best race, the draw may cost her lengths she cannot recover.
MY FRIEND MICKI Experience Edge: The only race-seasoned filly in the field carries a specific second-start improvement angle that could outperform her 44.9% CRI if she has trained forward.
Behavioral Wildcards: Unraced fillies at Caymanas can act up in the gate, break slowly, or bolt — particularly those wearing heavy equipment for the first time. RUN VILLE RUN (Tongue Tie + Figure 8 + first-time Lasix) carries the most equipment of any runner, which suggests she may have been difficult to manage in morning work.
9CRI VERDICT
TOP PICK: CHARMING CHATERBOX at 58.4% — Unraced Successful Native bay from a confident
connection (Tevin Foster up, 95% QG confidence), inside PP2 draw ideal for 5½F round,
first-time Lasix as performance catalyst; fair odds of ~0.71/1 against ML 2/1 is a
clear overlay.
DANGER: MY FRIEND MICKI at 44.9% — The only race-experienced filly in the field, a
creditable fourth in her debut, now fitted with cheek pieces for her second start.
Second-run improvement is a strong pattern in Jamaican maiden races; connections
(Dawkins/Griffiths) inspire confidence. QG confidence of 93% demands attention.
VALUE PLAY: IMAGINEARIUM at 50.4% — Anthony Nunes (Champion Trainer) debut runner
with scope and strong morning works, Tongue Tie + first-time Lasix at 3/1 morning
line against fair odds near 1/1. The stable angle and equipment combination at
a generous morning line price represents the best raw overlay in the field.
SUGGESTED WAGERS:
Win: CHARMING CHATERBOX
Exacta: CHARMING CHATERBOX / MY FRIEND MICKI (primary)
CHARMING CHATERBOX / IMAGINEARIUM (secondary)
Trifecta: CHARMING CHATERBOX / MY FRIEND MICKI, IMAGINEARIUM / RUN VILLE RUN,
MY FRIEND MICKI, IMAGINEARIUM, ONEDEGEHDEGEHLINKS
Confidence: MODERATE (maiden race with multiple unknowns; back top pick
decisively but use wide coverage in exotic wagers)
RACE 2
Dedicated to: Coby Anthony — Champion Groom 2025
1RACE OVERVIEW
Race: 2 of 10 — Post Time 12:20 PM
Distance & Course: 6 Furlongs, Round Course
Purse: $860,000
Conditions: 3-Year-Old and Up, Claiming ($1,000,000–$800,000)
Field Size: 8 runners
Race Tag: Two Expert Picks — EAZY PEAZY (72.5%) and GREAT WAYNE (72.3%), a near-perfect dead heat at the top
This race presents the narrowest expert pick gap on the entire 10-race card. Two horses separated by just 0.2 percentage points — both classified as Expert Picks — create a genuine handicapping challenge. The field is small (8 runners), the form lines are tight, and both top selections have legitimate recent form. This is a race where exacta/quinella wagering is the logical focal point rather than a single-horse win play. Both EAZY PEAZY and GREAT WAYNE enter with credible routes to victory, and the remaining field — particularly NATURAL DANCER and SASH ON(CAN) — adds competitive depth.
2CONTENDER PROFILES
EAZY PEAZY — Post 3, Weight 122 lbs / 55.3 kg
CRI Rating: 72.5% — Expert Pick
Morning Line: 5/2 (Confidence: 92%)
Form: Led two furlongs out, 6 lengths 4th to Thousand Treasures — competitive positioning, likely tightened
Connections: Tevin Foster + Ryan Darby
Equipment: T, &, L (Tongue Tie + Figure 8 + Lasix)
Key Angle: Tevin Foster returning on a horse who showed gate speed and led late in the race before fading; inside PP3 draw on the 6-furlong round course is favorable for a front-runner.
GREAT WAYNE — Post 8, Weight 120 lbs / 54.4 kg
CRI Rating: 72.3% — Expert Pick
Morning Line: 2/1 (Confidence: 94%)
Form: Chased, clear one furlong out, beat Jordon Reign's by 4 lengths — won last out convincingly
Connections: Demar Williams + Omar Williams
Equipment: &, L, V (Figure 8 + Lasix + Visor)
Key Angle: Won his most recent start going clear, beating a field-quality rival. QG confidence of 94% is the highest in the race. Outside PP8 draw over 6 furlongs round is a manageable disadvantage for a horse with clear late-race pace.
NATURAL DANCER — Post 4, Weight 115 lbs / 52.2 kg (Apprentice allowance; listed 112, declared 115)
CRI Rating: 60.5% — Contender
Morning Line: 5/1 (Confidence: 90%)
Form: Chased four furlongs, 9 lengths 4th to Flybluejet — beaten decisively but shown ability; "fitter" note implies condition improvement
Connections: Shaheem Gordon + O'Neil Markland
Equipment: T, &, L, V (Tongue Tie + Figure 8 + Lasix + Visor)
Key Angle: The QG note "fitter" after a 9-length defeat is a direct trainer signal. The weight advantage from the apprentice allowance (115 lbs vs. 120–122 for rivals) could prove decisive in a close finish.
SASH ON(CAN) — Post 2, Weight 115 lbs / 52.2 kg
CRI Rating: 53.9% — Contender
Morning Line: 2/1 (Confidence: 95%)
Form: Prominent, two lengths 2nd to Emperorofthecats — placed last out, competitive form
Connections: Raddeish Roman + R. Crichton
Equipment: B, T, L (Blinkers + Tongue Tie + Lasix)
Key Angle: Ran a good second to a higher-class runner (Emperorofthecats appears in Race 9 at 90.0%), suggesting SASH ON(CAN) has been running with quality opposition. Raddeish Roman is the Champion Jockey for 2025 and can make the difference in a tight finish.
AWESOME ANTHONY — Post 7, Weight 120 lbs / 54.4 kg
CRI Rating: 46.1% — Contender
Morning Line: 4/1 (Confidence: 75%)
Form: Five lengths 3rd to Thousand Treasures — disqualified; likely finished closer than the result indicates
Connections: Anthony Thomas + C. Cunningham
Equipment: L (Lasix only)
Key Angle: The disqualification from third place is a form note that handicappers must read carefully. If AWESOME ANTHONY finished close and was placed third before the DQ, his actual ability may be higher than the result line shows.
3PACE ANALYSIS
Over six furlongs round, the pace scenario is critical. EAZY PEAZY from PP3 is a known front-runner (led two furlongs out last time). SASH ON(CAN) from PP2 is described as "prominent" — another likely early pace factor. BIG BIG DADDY (PP1) has shown even running style.
Likely front-runners: EAZY PEAZY (PP3) and SASH ON(CAN) (PP2). These two are on a potential collision course for early position.
Mid-pack trackers: GREAT WAYNE (PP8) tracked and came with a run last time. NATURAL DANCER (PP4) chased for four furlongs before fading.
Pace verdict: A genuine pace duel between EAZY PEAZY and SASH ON(CAN) through the first three furlongs is probable. If the pace is truly hot, this sets up a closer scenario — which benefits GREAT WAYNE (PP8) who won late last time. If one of the pace horses breaks cleanly and gets a soft lead, they become more dangerous.
4CLASS & FORM ANALYSIS
This is a mid-level claiming race — $1,000,000 to $800,000 — which sits in the middle tier of the Caymanas Park claiming hierarchy. The field has recent form lines converging around mutual rivals:
EAZY PEAZY finished 4th to Thousand Treasures.
AWESOME ANTHONY finished 3rd (DQ) to Thousand Treasures in the same race.
GREAT WAYNE beat Jordon Reign's (who appears in Race 10 as a top contender).
SASH ON(CAN) ran second to EMPEROROFTHECATS (Race 9 standout at 90.0%).
The form is live and interconnected, suggesting this field is well-matched. GREAT WAYNE's win over Jordon Reign's — who carries a 64.0% CRI in Race 10 — is a strong form reference. NATURAL DANCER's form against FLYBLUEJET(USA) (Race 9 contender at 66.5%) similarly links to the card's better runners.
NATURAL DANCER (60.5%) represents a potential class edge within the field based on raw CRI, and the QG "fitter" note implies he is improving on the form line that reads 9 lengths off the pace.
5DRAW ANALYSIS
Six furlongs, round course. Inside-to-mid draws are generally preferred.
PP1 (BIG BIG DADDY): Rail draw but this older horse (9yo) has shown flat form. Position matters less here.
PP2 (SASH ON(CAN)): Excellent inside draw for a prominent-running horse. Gets a clean early position without fighting traffic.
PP3 (EAZY PEAZY): Very good. One slot off the rail; ideal for a front-runner. Can break cleanly and establish early position.
PP4 (NATURAL DANCER): Good draw. Mid-inner position; allows tracking position without immediate traffic concerns.
PP7 (AWESOME ANTHONY): Acceptable. Wide enough to avoid early traffic but not damaging.
PP8 (GREAT WAYNE): The widest significant draw in the field. Over six furlongs round, this costs approximately half a length in early running. However, GREAT WAYNE demonstrated last time that he can win from off the pace regardless, and his closing ability compensates for a wide draw.
6CONNECTIONS ANALYSIS
Tevin Foster / Ryan Darby (EAZY PEAZY): Foster is the top jockey on the card. His presence on EAZY PEAZY signals that Darby's stable views this as the horse's race. The prior form showed early speed and the 92% QG confidence is near the ceiling for a claiming horse.
Demar Williams / Omar Williams (GREAT WAYNE): Demar Williams (Champion Apprentice 2025) on a horse who won last out with authority. The 94% QG confidence is the highest in the race. The name of the race dedication — to Demar Williams as Champion Apprentice — adds a ceremonial note, though no handicapping weight attaches to it.
Raddeish Roman / R. Crichton (SASH ON(CAN)): Champion Jockey Raddeish Roman is a pivotal booking. Roman's presence on SASH ON(CAN) despite the 2/1 ML indicates strong stable confidence that does not fully align with her 53.9% CRI. The 95% QG confidence is actually the highest in the race, creating a notable disconnect between the CRI ranking and the form-based confidence reading.
Shaheem Gordon / O'Neil Markland (NATURAL DANCER): Gordon is a capable apprentice who benefits from the weight allowance. Markland's "fitter" comment after a 9-length defeat is a training signal worth treating seriously.
7VALUE ASSESSMENT
Fair odds formula: (100 / CRI%) - 1
| Horse | CRI% | Fair Odds | Morning Line | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAZY PEAZY | 72.5% | ~0.38/1 | 5/2 | BIG |
| GREAT WAYNE | 72.3% | ~0.38/1 | 2/1 | BIG |
| NATURAL DANCER | 60.5% | ~0.65/1 | 5/1 | BIG |
| SASH ON(CAN) | 53.9% | ~0.86/1 | 2/1 | UNDERLAY |
| AWESOME ANTHONY | 46.1% | ~1.17/1 | 4/1 |
EAZY PEAZY at 5/2 is a significant overlay. Fair odds of approximately 2/5 against a morning line of 5/2 makes him the best priced expert pick relative to his CRI on the entire morning card.
GREAT WAYNE at 2/1 is also a big overlay — fair odds near 2/5 against a 2/1 ML. Both expert picks represent exceptional value relative to what the CRI model expects them to return.
SASH ON(CAN) at 2/1 is the only underlay in the top five. Her fair odds of ~0.86/1 are actually shorter than the ML implies, meaning she is overpriced relative to CRI.
NATURAL DANCER at 5/1 is the standout overlay in terms of raw price — fair odds of ~0.65/1 against a 5/1 ML. This is a 7-8 point "gap" race; if NATURAL DANCER has trained forward (as the QG suggests), this is the best each-way value in the race.
8RISK FACTORS
Near-Identical CRI Ratings: The 0.2-point gap between EAZY PEAZY and GREAT WAYNE is effectively a statistical tie. Either can legitimately win, and backing only one is a risk.
GREAT WAYNE's Outside Draw (PP8): Over six furlongs round, the outside gate costs early ground. Against a pace-setter from PP3, GREAT WAYNE must either make up ground early or trust his closing burst.
SASH ON(CAN) at Short Odds Despite Lower CRI: Her 2/1 ML against a 53.9% CRI (fair odds ~0.86/1) creates a false favourite scenario. If she is sent off near her ML, she is technically an underlay and represents poor value on win tickets.
NATURAL DANCER's Apprentice Rider: Shaheem Gordon, while capable, is still developing. In a close race, an experienced senior jockey could make the difference.
EAZY PEAZY's Pace Duel: If SASH ON(CAN) pushes EAZY PEAZY hard through the early furlongs, both pace horses could tire in the stretch, leaving the door open for GREAT WAYNE.
9CRI VERDICT
TOP PICK: EAZY PEAZY at 72.5% — Champion jockey Tevin Foster aboard a horse with
demonstrated early pace from a favorable PP3 inside draw. Fair odds ~2/5 against
5/2 morning line is the biggest overlay among both expert picks. The Tongue Tie +
Figure 8 + Lasix equipment combination is proven, and the 92% QG confidence is
authoritative.
DANGER: GREAT WAYNE at 72.3% — Won last out going clear by 4 lengths; the highest
QG confidence reading in the race at 94%. Outside PP8 draw is a concern, but his
late-running style turns a hot pace into an advantage rather than a liability.
Cannot be confidently downgraded given the near-identical CRI.
VALUE PLAY: NATURAL DANCER at 60.5% — The best raw overlay in the race at 5/1
morning line against fair odds of ~0.65/1. The QG "fitter" signal after a 9-length
loss is a conditioning alert. Weight advantage from the apprentice allowance
(115 lbs vs. 120-122) could be decisive. Merits coverage in exacta/trifecta at
a generous price.
SUGGESTED WAGERS:
Win: EAZY PEAZY (primary) / GREAT WAYNE (equal alternative)
Exacta: EAZY PEAZY / GREAT WAYNE (both ways)
GREAT WAYNE / EAZY PEAZY (boxed)
Trifecta: EAZY PEAZY, GREAT WAYNE / EAZY PEAZY, GREAT WAYNE /
NATURAL DANCER, SASH ON(CAN), AWESOME ANTHONY
Confidence: HIGH — Both expert picks are legitimate overlays; boxing
the top two is the primary wager strategy.