CRI DEEP HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS
Caymanas Park — Saturday, June 20, 2026 (Father's Day Weekend)
10-Race Card | Total Purse: $10,720,000 | 97 Horses
Feature: THE VICEROY TROPHY (G.I) — Race 8, $1,750,000 (Graded Stakes / Open Allowance — 3-Y-O & Upwards)
Secondary Features: THE MR. LOVER LOVER TROPHY (R9, $1,100,000) | 7TH RUNNING OF THE FATHERS' DAY SPECIAL (R5, $1,050,000)
CARD OVERVIEW
| Race | Time | Distance | Purse | Conditions | Expert Pick(s) | Top CRI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 11:50 AM | 7½F Round | $730,000 | Maiden Condition Race — NB 4YO&UP | ROUND THE TWIST (30.5%), MODERN MONARCH (30.2%) | 30.5% |
| R2 | 12:35 PM | 8F Round | $780,000 | Rest. All. IV — NB4YO&UP(NW3)/IMP4YO&UP(NW2) | GOOD CONSCIENCE (37.0%), COSALIVIN (35.5%) | 37.0% |
| R3 | 1:10 PM | 7½F Round | $790,000 | $500K-$400K Opt. Claiming 3YO&UP | TIGRAY EXPRESS (42.4%) | 42.4% |
| R4 | 1:45 PM | 5½F Round | $820,000 | Rest. All. III — NB4YO&UP(NW4)/IMP4YO&UP(NW3) | RALPHS TREASURE(USA) (35.4%), HI SLEW SQUARED(USA) (35.2%) | 35.4% |
| R5 | 2:30 PM | 7½F Round | $1,050,000 | THE FATHERS' DAY SPECIAL — Maiden Condition NB 3YO | GOLDEN AMBASSADOR (30.8%), I LOVE BIRDIE (30.3%) | 30.8% |
| R6 | 3:10 PM | 6½F Round | $700,000 | $350K-$250K Opt. Claiming — 14-horse field | NO EXPERT PICK — TURNONTHELIGHT (33.6%) leads | 33.6% |
| R7 | 3:50 PM | 6F Round | $750,000 | Rest. All. V — NB4YO&UP(NW2)/IMP4YO&UP(MDN) | YOU'RE MY SWEETIE (34.4%), D'STORM (33.7%) | 34.4% |
| R8 | 4:25 PM | 5½F Round | $1,750,000 | THE VICEROY TROPHY (G.I) — Open Allowance 3YO&UP | OF A REVOLUTION(USA) (45.1%), PACK PLAYS(USA) (44.1%) | 45.1% |
| R9 | 5:00 PM | 9F 25 Yds Rd | $1,100,000 | THE MR. LOVER LOVER TROPHY — Rest. All. II — NB 3YO NW2 | CITY OF DREAMS (41.9%) | 41.9% |
| R10 | 5:40 PM | 5F Round | $1,250,000 | Overnight Allowance 3YO&UP — 14-horse field | NO EXPERT PICK — DOTHRAKI(USA) (33.3%) leads | 33.3% |
KEY THEMES
OF A REVOLUTION at 45.1% Is the Highest CRI Number on the Entire Card. In Race 8 — THE VICEROY TROPHY (G.I.) at $1.75M — Anthony Nunes' 7YO sits 1.0 point clear of PACK PLAYS(USA) at 44.1%. Form figure "231" — a last-out 4-length win over ZULU WARRIOR at favourite. Reyan Lewis up. Group A 198. Drawn at PP1 — the saving rail on the round course over 5½ furlongs. The day's bankable Grade I anchor and the highest-conviction call on the card. PACK PLAYS at 44.1% is the second-highest figure of the day — same race, same top weight (57.2 kg).
THE VICEROY TROPHY IS THE CONVICTION RACE. OF A REVOLUTION 45.1% and PACK PLAYS 44.1% are the only two 44%+ figures on the entire card. SIR DON(USA) at 41.8% is the third 41%+ figure — also in the Viceroy. Three of the four highest CRI numbers on the card all run in Race 8. Anthony Nunes saddles FOUR of the six runners — OF A REVOLUTION, NEO STAR(USA), SIR DON(USA), and SUPREMASI. The exotics in the Grade I cannot avoid the Nunes barn.
TIGRAY EXPRESS at 42.4% Is the Highest Non-Viceroy Figure of the Day. Race 3 — Ian Roberts' 7YO leads the second-highest single-EP race on the card by SIX points over SIR JOHN (36.4%). Form figure "116" — last-out winner by 1 length over Golden Loyalty at favourite. Richie Shakes up. Group F 50. The outside PP9 draw on the 7½F round course is the only friction point — but the figure gap and last-out class give it conviction.
CITY OF DREAMS at 41.9% Anchors THE MR. LOVER LOVER TROPHY. Race 9 — Peter-John Parsard's 3YO leads by 5.8 points over DARK AUTHORITY (36.1%). Form figure "31" — last-out 8-length win over Barbq at 2/5. Dane Dawkins up. Group D 105. CITY OF DREAMS and TIGRAY EXPRESS are the two strongest single-EP plays on the card outside the Viceroy — both last-out winners at short prices over the most recent runs.
ENTIRE 10-RACE CARD IS RUN ON THE ROUND COURSE. No straight-course race on the program — a rare full-round card. The straight-course bias playbook (PP1 rail = worst, PP9 outside = best) does not apply. Round-course dynamics take over: shorter trips (5–5½F) favour inside-middle draws to save ground on the single bend; one-turn 6–7½F is largely neutral; two-turn 8F+ is essentially draw-neutral. PP1 RAIL IS A SAVING DRAW TODAY, NOT A PENALTY — note this for GOLDEN AMBASSADOR (R5 PP1, EP), HI SLEW SQUARED (R4 PP1, EP), and OF A REVOLUTION (R8 PP1, EP). All three are favoured by the round-course bias.
Six Races Have Two Expert Picks. R1 (ROUND THE TWIST 30.5%, MODERN MONARCH 30.2% — 0.3 split, tightest pair on the card), R2 (GOOD CONSCIENCE 37.0%, COSALIVIN 35.5% — 1.5 split), R4 (RALPHS TREASURE 35.4%, HI SLEW SQUARED 35.2% — 0.2 split, virtual dead heat), R5 (GOLDEN AMBASSADOR 30.8%, I LOVE BIRDIE 30.3% — 0.5 split), R7 (YOU'RE MY SWEETIE 34.4%, D'STORM 33.7% — 0.7 split), R8 (OF A REVOLUTION 45.1%, PACK PLAYS 44.1% — 1.0 split). The R1 and R4 EP pairs are essentially coin-flips inside three-tenths of a point.
Two Races Have a Single Expert Pick. R3 (TIGRAY EXPRESS 42.4% — 6.0 points clear of SIR JOHN), R9 (CITY OF DREAMS 41.9% — 5.8 points clear of DARK AUTHORITY). These are the two strongest model singles on the card — both for last-out winners. Single in win positions, anchor the verticals.
R6 and R10 Are the Only Races Without an Expert Pick — Both 14-Runner Spread Races. R6 has TURNONTHELIGHT 33.6%, PAPA GRAY 30.9%, CONUNDRUM 28.9%, HEROINE 28.9%, DRONE STRIKE 25.8% — five within 7.8 points and form figure "131" on the leader. The model holds back because the 14-runner field with the outside PP13 draw on TURNONTHELIGHT introduces variance. R10 has DOTHRAKI 33.3%, RUN JULIE RUN 33.2%, DIGITAL ONE 33.0%, ZULU WARRIOR 31.5%, ANOTHER ONE 30.8% — FIVE inside 2.5 points, the deepest cluster of the day. These are the two cover-deep races on the card — three to four horses in each vertical.
Cross-Card Form Lines Anchor Multiple Bets.
ZULU WARRIOR line (R8 → R10): OF A REVOLUTION (R8 EP) beat ZULU WARRIOR (R10 Contender) by 4 lengths last out. If OF A REVOLUTION wins R8 as expected, the form line lifts ZULU WARRIOR's chance in R10.
ASCEND line (R4): HI SLEW SQUARED (R4 EP) beat ASCEND (R4 Contender) by ½ length last out. Direct in-race form — both run in the same race today.
BROMPTON BOY line (R4 → R10): BOWMORE(USA) (R4 Contender) was 1 length 2nd to BROMPTON BOY (R10 Contender) last out. Both run today in different races.
DOTHRAKI line (R10): DOTHRAKI(USA) (R10 model leader) beat DIGITAL ONE(USA) (R10 Contender) back in October. Direct in-race form.
DARK AUTHORITY line (R9 → R5): DARK AUTHORITY (R9 Contender) beat I LOVE BIRDIE (R5 EP) by 1 length last out. Cross-card form. GOLDEN AMBASSADOR (R5 EP) was 14L 3rd to DARK AUTHORITY on debut — the same form line.
HOORAY HENRY line (R5): I LOVE BIRDIE was 4L 2nd to Hooray Henry; PROSPERITY SEN was 5L 3rd; ABUDAR was 15L 4th. Three R5 runners with the same form line — I LOVE BIRDIE finished closest.
FORMALIST line (R7): MONEY MISSION was 12L 2nd to FORMALIST (last Saturday's day's banker); NEBUCHADNEZZAR was 14L 4th; BADBADTANESHA was 13L 3rd. Three R7 runners with the same cross-week form line.
BADBADTANESHA → MODERN MONARCH line (R7 → R1): BADBADTANESHA (R7 Contender) beat MODERN MONARCH (R1 EP) last out. Cross-card form.
DELIGHTFUL ONE line (R1): ROUND THE TWIST was 2L 3rd to Delightful One; MODERN MONARCH was 6L 4th. Both R1 EPs share the same form line — ROUND THE TWIST finished closer.
BRAHMA BULL line (R2): GOOD CONSCIENCE was 5L 2nd to Brahma Bull; COSALIVIN was 5L 3rd. Both R2 EPs share the same form line.
MOJITO line (R10): RUN JULIE RUN was 2L 3rd to MOJITO in the Jamaica Cup — that's last Saturday's R9 Expert Pick winner. Cross-week form line into R10.
THE HOT DANCER line (R6): PAPA GRAY was 5L 3rd to The Hot Dancer — last Saturday's R5 Expert Pick winner. Cross-week form line into R6.
Anthony Nunes' Heavy Book — Dominates the Viceroy. Nunes saddles OF A REVOLUTION(USA) (R8 EP), NEO STAR (R8), SIR DON(USA) (R8), SUPREMASI (R8), BOWMORE(USA) (R4), NEBUCHADNEZZAR (R7), CODE RED (R5), DARK AUTHORITY (R9), ONE IANZHA LINKS (R9), BROMPTON BOY (R10), ANOTHER ONE (R10), MISS GROVE(CAN) (R10). That's TWELVE ranked mounts including ONE Expert Pick, FOUR runners in the Grade I Viceroy alone, and THREE runners in Race 10. The trainer angle of the day.
Jason DaCosta's Race 10 Trio. DaCosta saddles THREE of the fourteen R10 runners — DOTHRAKI(USA) (model leader 33.3%), RICORICORICO(USA), MISS MONEYPENNY — plus LONDON SPIRIT (R9). The exotics in R10 cannot avoid the DaCosta barn.
Raddeish Roman's Premium Book. Roman rides ROUND THE TWIST (R1 EP), SIR JOHN (R3), DIGITAL ONE(USA) (R10), DARK AUTHORITY (R9), PACK PLAYS(USA) (R8 EP), TURNONTHELIGHT (R6 model leader), FOUR THIRTY(USA) (R2), MONEY MISSION (R7). EIGHT top-tier mounts including TWO Expert Picks (one in the Grade I) and the model leader in R6. The day's premium book.
Tajay Suckoo's Heavy Book Carries the 2kg Claim. Suckoo rides DROP OFF (R1), LAST POSSESSION (R2), BOWMORE(USA) (R4), CODE RED (R5), SUPREMASI (R8 Viceroy), DARWIN (R9), ANOTHER ONE (R10), BADBADTANESHA (R7). EIGHT ranked mounts. The 2-kilo claim on top weights in the Viceroy is the angle.
R4 Is the Highest-Rated Race Outside the Grade I. Group D ratings 96–116 — the most quality outside the Viceroy. RALPHS TREASURE Group D 116, BOWMORE Group D 111, ASCEND Group D 97, FEELING FREE Group D 96, HI SLEW SQUARED Group D 101. A genuine Restricted Allowance III with five Group D runners — the figure cluster (35.4–32.5%) reflects the depth.
RACE 1
1RACE OVERVIEW
Race: 1 of 10 — Post Time 11:50 AM
Distance & Course: 7½ Furlongs, Round Course
Purse: $730,000
Conditions: Maiden Condition Race — Native-Bred 4-Y-O & Upwards
Field Size: 10 runners
Wager Types: EX, Quin, Tri, Spr, Hi5, D/E, Triple, Reggae 6
Race Tag: TWO EXPERT PICKS — ROUND THE TWIST (30.5%), MODERN MONARCH (30.2%) — TIGHTEST PAIR ON CARD (0.3 split)
Ten runners over 7½ furlongs round to open the card. Two Expert Picks separated by just 0.3 of a point — the tightest top pair on the entire card. Both EPs share the same form line through Delightful One — ROUND THE TWIST finished 2L 3rd, MODERN MONARCH finished 6L 4th. ROUND THE TWIST has the closer finish; MODERN MONARCH has top weight (57.2 kg) and was the prior favourite. Five-deep cluster inside 7.4 points behind the top pair.
2CONTENDER PROFILES
ROUND THE TWIST — PP3, 55.8 kg (123 lbs) — CRI 30.5% Expert Pick — Raddeish Roman (RRoman) for Alford Brown (ALBrown) — Form 263 — 9/1, held up, 2 lengths 3rd to Delightful One, fitter. Group H 03. ML 3/1 (92%). Equipment: Tongue Tie, Figure-8 noseband, Lasix, Visor. Inside-of-middle PP3 draw on the round course saves ground around the single bend at 7½F. Form figure 263 — last-out third with a recent close finish. Direct form line through Delightful One — finished 4 lengths closer than MODERN MONARCH. Roman's first ranked mount of the day.
MODERN MONARCH — PP7, 57.2 kg (126 lbs) — CRI 30.2% Expert Pick — Tevin Foster (TFoster) for Carl Anderson (CAnderson) — Form 224 — Favourite, ran evenly 7 furlongs, 6 lengths 4th to Delightful One. Group H 11. ML 6/5 (95%). Equipment: Tongue Tie, Lasix, Visor. Top weight at 57.2 kg — 1.4 kg heavier than ROUND THE TWIST. Form figure 224 — two seconds and a fourth, no win but consistent placing. Last-time market favourite — return-to-form angle. Highest QG confidence in the race at 95% and shortest ML at 6/5 — the bookmaker's pick. PP7 outside-of-middle on the round course. Foster's premium ride opens the card.
PRINCE ZAYDEN — PP9, 55.8 kg (123 lbs) — CRI 26.7% Contender — Shane Richardson (SRichardson) for Louis Richards (LoRichards) — Form 439 — 5/1, ran evenly, 6 lengths 3rd to Greyt Magnum. Group H 10. ML 7/5 (94%). Equipment: Tongue Tie, Figure-8 noseband, Lasix. 94% QG confidence — second-highest in the race. Outside PP9 draw is a friction point at 7½F round but manageable in 10-runner field. Greyt Magnum form line — a prior race winner under reference.
DROP OFF — PP10, 54.9 kg (121 lbs) — CRI 23.4% Contender — Tajay Suckoo (TSuckoo2) for Gary Crawford (GCrawford) — Form 054 — Outpaced early, 7 lengths 4th to Badbadtanesha. Group H 01. ML 9/2 (75%). Equipment: Tongue Tie. Suckoo carries the 2-kilo claim. PP10 widest draw on the round course — loses the most ground. Form line through Badbadtanesha — a R7 Contender today.
DREAMER — PP8, 51.7 kg (114 lbs) — CRI 23.1% Contender — Jaheim Anderson (JahAnderson3) for Phillip Elliott (PElliott) — Form 390 — 24/1, well outrun, 24 lengths 3rd to Kusmi back in December. Group H 10. ML 5/2 (90%). Equipment: Lasix. Anderson carries the 3-kilo claim. Lightest weight in the top five at 51.7 kg. Returning from a layoff — the December form is dated. Outside-of-middle draw.
3PACE ANALYSIS
ROUND THE TWIST "held up" — closer. MODERN MONARCH "ran evenly 7 furlongs" — even-pace. PRINCE ZAYDEN "ran evenly" — even-pace. DROP OFF "outpaced early" — closer. DREAMER "well outrun" — closer. No proven front-runner among the top five. CHIEF IN COMMAND (PP6, unfancied) likely the pacemaker by elimination. Slow-to-honest pace expected; the even-pace runners with class (MODERN MONARCH, PRINCE ZAYDEN) and closers (ROUND THE TWIST) are well placed for a 7½F race.
4CLASS & FORM ANALYSIS
MODERN MONARCH Group H 11 > PRINCE ZAYDEN Group H 10 = DREAMER Group H 10 > ROUND THE TWIST Group H 03 > DROP OFF Group H 01. MODERN MONARCH holds the top group rating; ROUND THE TWIST holds the top CRI. Form figures: ROUND THE TWIST 263 has a recent third; MODERN MONARCH 224 has two recent placings; PRINCE ZAYDEN 439 is mid-pack; DROP OFF 054 has one recent fourth. The Delightful One form line splits the top two — ROUND THE TWIST 4 lengths closer than MODERN MONARCH. The model rates the form line more heavily than the group rating, hence the tight 0.3-point split.
5DRAW ANALYSIS
Round course, 7½F, 10-horse field. One full turn — draws are largely neutral at this trip, with a slight ground-saving edge to PP1-5 (inside-middle band). LAGERTHA (PP1) rail saves ground but the form (079) is cold. MAN FROM BETHANY (PP2) inside band. ROUND THE TWIST (PP3) inside-middle saves ground — favoured draw. TILLURIDE (PP4) middle. JACARANDA KNIGHT (PP5) middle. CHIEF IN COMMAND (PP6) middle-outside. MODERN MONARCH (PP7) outside-middle — manageable. DREAMER (PP8) outside band. PRINCE ZAYDEN (PP9) outside — friction point. DROP OFF (PP10) widest — loses the most ground. ROUND THE TWIST has the favoured draw of the top five EPs.
7VALUE ASSESSMENT
| Horse | CRI% | Fair Odds | ML | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROUND THE TWIST | 30.5% | ~2.3/1 | 3/1 | (slight) |
| MODERN MONARCH | 30.2% | ~2.3/1 | 6/5 | UNDER VALUE |
| PRINCE ZAYDEN | 26.7% | ~2.7/1 | 7/5 | BIG UNDER VALUE |
| DROP OFF | 23.4% | ~3.3/1 | 9/2 | FAIR VALUE |
| DREAMER | 23.1% | ~3.3/1 | 5/2 | UNDER VALUE |
8RISK FACTORS
The top two are inside three-tenths of a point — neither has a meaningful CRI edge. MODERN MONARCH carries the top weight (57.2 kg) and the bookmaker's confidence (95%, 6/5); ROUND THE TWIST has the tighter form line through Delightful One but loses on the group rating by 8 points. Maiden race with a 10-horse field — exotic variance is high. The market massively under-values ROUND THE TWIST at 3/1 vs the model's 2.3/1 fair odds — this is the day's slight opening overlay. PRINCE ZAYDEN's 7/5 ML is far below the model's 2.7/1 fair odds — a clear underlay.
9CRI VERDICT
TOP PICK: ROUND THE TWIST at 30.5% — Expert Pick, top CRI, form-line edge over MODERN MONARCH through Delightful One, favoured PP3 inside-middle draw. Slight overlay at 3/1.
DANGER: MODERN MONARCH at 30.2% — Top weight, top group rating (11), highest QG confidence (95%), 6/5 bookmaker's pick. Could easily be the winner.
VALUE: DROP OFF at 23.4% — 9/2 ML on a form line through R7 Contender Badbadtanesha. Wide draw is the friction point but the price is generous.
Confidence: MEDIUM (0.3-point split between EPs makes the call effectively a coin-flip; ROUND THE TWIST gets the slight overlay and saving draw nod)