CRI DEEP HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS
Caymanas Park — Saturday, May 23, 2026
9-Race Card | Total Purse: $8,170,000 | 71 Horses
Feature: THE 10TH RUNNING OF THE MONDAY MORNING TROPHY — Race 8, $1,100,000 (Restricted Allowance II — NB 3-Y-O / NW2)
CARD OVERVIEW
| Race | Time | Distance | Purse | Conditions | Expert Pick(s) | Top CRI% |
|---|
| R1 | 12:00 PM | 5F Straight | $860,000 | $1MILL-$800K Claiming 3YO&UP | GENERATIONAL (36.6%), UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) (34.5%) | 36.6% |
| R2 | 12:45 PM | 8F Round | $1,050,000 | Maiden Special Weight — NB & IMP 3YO | PUROSANGUE(USA) (34.8%), UNBELIEVABLE POWER(USA) (34.2%) | 34.8% |
| R3 | 1:20 PM | 8F Round | $780,000 | Rest. All. IV — NB4YO&UP(NW3)/IMP4YO&UP(NW2) | BROMPTON BOY (37.6%), PRINCE KAZAIRE (35.7%) | 37.6% |
| R4 | 2:05 PM | 7F Round | $790,000 | $500K-$400K Opt. Claiming 3YO&UP | SIR WONG DON (39.5%), PRINCE MARSHALL (38.3%) | 39.5% |
| R5 | 2:45 PM | 6F Round | $1,190,000 | Rest. Stakes — IMP3YO&UP(NW3)/NB3-4YO(NW4) | FRED THE MASTER(USA) (39.5%), MULLIGAN MAN(USA) (36.0%) | 39.5% |
| R6 | 3:25 PM | 5F Straight | $750,000 | Rest. All. IV — NB5YO&UP(NW3)/IMP5YO&UP(NW2) | NO EXPERT PICK — SOLACE (30.1%) leads | 30.1% |
| R7 | 4:05 PM | 5F Round | $1,050,000 | Maiden Condition Race — NB 3YO | EYE OF THE TIGER (33.0%), DARK AUTHORITY (31.7%) | 33.0% |
| R8 | 4:45 PM | 7F Round | $1,100,000 | THE MONDAY MORNING TROPHY — Rest. All. II — NB 3YO NW2 | SUPER DAVID (44.4%), CHARMING CHATERBOX (41.6%) | 44.4% |
| R9 | 5:30 PM | 5F Round | $600,000 | $200K Opt. Claiming 5YO&UP / NB6YO&UP(NW2) / NB5YO(MDN) | NO EXPERT PICK — NEWLAND LINKS (41.2%) leads | 41.2% |
KEY THEMES
SUPER DAVID at 44.4% Is the Highest CRI Number on the Card. In Race 8 — THE 10TH RUNNING OF THE MONDAY MORNING TROPHY at $1.1M — David Powell's 3YO sits 2.8 points clear of CHARMING CHATERBOX at 41.6%. Form figure "31" — a last-out 9-length win over Hooray Henry at 5/2. Parchment up. Group D 111. Drawn at PP4 in the favoured middle band on the round-into-stretch configuration. The day's bankable anchor and the highest-conviction call on the card.
CHARMING CHATERBOX (41.6%) and NEWLAND LINKS (41.2%) Are the Other 40%+ Picks. CHARMING CHATERBOX backs SUPER DAVID in Race 8 — UNBEATEN on a single start with a 9-length verdict over Sonador at 3/5. NEWLAND LINKS leads Race 9 by 14.6 points (41.2% vs. 26.6%) but the model declined to label her an Expert Pick — the 12-horse field and outside PP9 draw on the round-into-stretch course are penalising. Both numbers sit just behind the day's top.
DaCosta Saddles FOUR of the Five in Race 5 — Dominant Barn Race. Jason DaCosta runs FRED THE MASTER(USA) (Expert Pick, 39.5%), STAR QUEST (35.1%), SUMMER PALACE (31.6%), and MIDNIGHT TRAVELLER (Longshot, 20.5%) in the $1.19M Restricted Stakes. MULLIGAN MAN(USA) (Saqlain Roman, 36.0%) is the only non-DaCosta runner in the top five. The exotics in Race 5 cannot avoid the DaCosta barn.
Two Straight-Course Races Make Draw Decisive. R1 (5F Straight) and R6 (5F Straight) run down the chute where PP1-3 (rail zone) wins 13.7%, PP4-8 (middle) wins 47.9%, PP9+ (outside) wins 38.4%, and PP9 itself is the single most successful post on the grounds at 27.3% strike rate. R1 Expert Pick GENERATIONAL is draw-penalised at PP1 — the worst post on the straight (1.3% strike rate). R6 model leader SOLACE PP4 is favourably drawn; ANOTHER MISSION (27.9%) is draw-penalised at PP1.
Five Races Have Two Expert Picks. R1 (GENERATIONAL 36.6%, UNCAPTURED EMPRESS 34.5% — 2.1 split), R2 (PUROSANGUE 34.8%, UNBELIEVABLE POWER 34.2% — 0.6 split, tightest pair on the card), R3 (BROMPTON BOY 37.6%, PRINCE KAZAIRE 35.7% — 1.9 split), R4 (SIR WONG DON 39.5%, PRINCE MARSHALL 38.3% — 1.2 split), R5 (FRED THE MASTER 39.5%, MULLIGAN MAN 36.0% — 3.5 split), R7 (EYE OF THE TIGER 33.0%, DARK AUTHORITY 31.7% — 1.3 split), R8 (SUPER DAVID 44.4%, CHARMING CHATERBOX 41.6% — 2.8 split). The R2 Expert-Pick pair is the closest on the card.
R6 and R9 Are the Only Races Without an Expert Pick. R6 is a 9-horse straight-course spread race with five horses within 3.9 points (SOLACE 30.1%, SILENT AMERICAN 29.7%, CHERRY BLOSSOM 29.0%, ANOTHER MISSION 27.9%, CHINITA ESTRELLA 26.2%). R9 is the LARGEST MODEL GAP — NEWLAND LINKS 41.2% sits 14.6 points clear, but the 12-horse field and outside PP9 draw kept her below the Expert Pick threshold. These are the two races requiring wider exotic coverage.
Cross-Card Form Lines Anchor Several Bets.
HOORAY HENRY line (Race 8): SUPER DAVID beat him by 9 lengths last out; STRONG AVEENU beat him by 3 lengths last out. Both 1-2 lines into the feature.
SUPER DAVID line (Race 7 → Race 8): D.O.K (R7) finished 14 lengths behind SUPER DAVID last out. The cross-race confirmation of SUPER DAVID's class makes D.O.K's R7 entry the weakest of the five.
CHINITA ESTRELLA line (Race 6 → Race 9): PRINCE DANIEL (R9) finished 6 lengths behind CHINITA ESTRELLA last out. Both run today — if CHINITA ESTRELLA wins R6, the form line lifts PRINCE DANIEL in R9.
PEPPER STEPPER line (Race 2): UNBELIEVABLE POWER 5L 2nd; COMUNA TRECE 11L 4th. Same race, both in top three today.
RADAM line (Race 6): SOLACE 1L 3rd; CHERRY BLOSSOM 1L 3rd. Same race, both finished a length behind Radam.
HONOR PRINCE line (Race 5): FRED THE MASTER 2L 2nd; MIDNIGHT TRAVELLER 7L 6th. Same race, both ran to Honor Prince at different efforts.
MONEY BOX line (Race 4): PRINCE MARSHALL beat MONEY BOX by 1/2L last out — both top four in R4 today.
Jason DaCosta Has the Heaviest Book. DaCosta saddles FRED THE MASTER(USA) (R5 Expert Pick), STAR QUEST (R5), SUMMER PALACE (R5), MIDNIGHT TRAVELLER (R5), HIMAYA (R4), EYE OF THE TIGER (R7 Expert Pick), FIDELITY (R8), and PUROSANGUE(USA) (R2 Expert Pick). That's EIGHT ranked mounts including THREE Expert Picks across four races. Cover the barn wide through the back half of the card.
Anthony Nunes' Heavy Book. Nunes saddles UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) (R1 Expert Pick), BROMPTON BOY (R3 Expert Pick), DARK AUTHORITY (R7 Expert Pick), D.O.K (R7), TIA MARIA (R8), and JON P (R9). SIX ranked mounts including THREE Expert Picks.
Raddeish Roman's Premium Book. Roman rides BROMPTON BOY (R3 Expert Pick), SIR WONG DON (R4 Expert Pick), COMUNA TRECE(USA) (R2), ANOTHER MISSION (R6), DARK AUTHORITY (R7 Expert Pick), TIA MARIA (R8) — SIX top-five mounts including THREE Expert Picks. The day's premium book.
1RACE OVERVIEW
Race: 1 of 9 — Post Time 12:00 PM (Noon)
Distance & Course: 5 Furlongs, Straight
Purse: $860,000
Conditions: $1,000,000 - $800,000 Claiming — 3-Y-O & Upwards
Field Size: 9 runners
Wager Types: EX, Quin, Tri, Spr, Hi5, D/E, Triple, Reggae 6, Ketch-9
Race Tag: TWO EXPERT PICKS — GENERATIONAL (36.6%), UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) (34.5%)
Nine runners over 5 furlongs straight. Two Expert Picks separated by 2.1 points, but the DRAW story splits them decisively: GENERATIONAL (PP1) is on the rail — the worst post on the straight (1.3% strike rate); UNCAPTURED EMPRESS (PP4) is in the favoured middle band. BLOOD MOON (PP9) pulls the single most-favoured slot on the grounds at 4/1 morning line — a draw-driven value play.
2CONTENDER PROFILES
GENERATIONAL — PP1, 54.4 kg (120 lbs) — CRI 36.6% Expert Pick — Jaheim Anderson (JahAnderson3) for Saqlain Roman (SaqRoman) — Form 222 — 30/1, chased 5 furlongs, 4 lengths 2nd to Whisky, fitter. Group D 106. ML 2/1 (95%). Equipment: Tongue Tie, Lasix. Anderson carries three-kilo claim. Highest QG confidence in the field at 95%, but PP1 is the rail-zone worst slot on the straight (1.3% strike rate, 1 win from 76 runners over 73 races). Form figure 222 — three straight runner-ups, the cleanest figure in the field but the draw is brutal.
UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) — PP4, 52.2 kg (115 lbs) — CRI 34.5% Expert Pick — Tajay Suckoo (TSuckoo2) for Anthony Nunes (AnthNunes) — Form 153 — 3/2, ran evenly, 4 lengths 3rd to Indestructible. Group D 102. ML 5/2 (93%). Equipment: Lasix. Suckoo carries two-kilo claim. PP4 is the start of the favoured middle band (47.9% of all straight wins). Form figure 153 — last-out third with a recent win in the figure. Lightest weight in the top five.
GREAT WAYNE — PP2, 54.4 kg (120 lbs) — CRI 29.2% Contender — Jemar Jackson (JJackson) for Carl Anderson (CAnderson) — Form 350 (QG 300) — Challenged 1 furlong out, a neck 3rd to Awesome Anthony. Group D 101. ML 9/2 (92%). Equipment: Figure-8, Lasix, Visor. PP2 is in the rail zone (PP1-3 = 13.7% of straight wins) — draw penalty. The 92% QG confidence is third-highest in the race. Neck loss reads as a sharp recent effort.
BLOOD MOON — PP9, 54.4 kg (120 lbs) — CRI 27.7% Contender — Tevin Foster (TFoster) for Renex Burrell (RBurrell) — Form 132 — 7/2, looked well, 3 lengths 2nd to The Hot Dancer. Group E 83. ML 4/1 (60%). Equipment: Tongue Tie, Figure-8, Lasix, Visor. PP9 IS THE SINGLE MOST SUCCESSFUL POST on the straight at Caymanas (15 wins, 27.3% strike rate, 38.4% of all straight wins). The draw is the headline. Direct line — 3L 2nd to The Hot Dancer (the May 9 R5 Expert Pick) at 7/2 — that's class form. Foster rides — top jockey on a favoured-draw value horse.
LABAN — PP8, 54.4 kg (120 lbs) — CRI 25.7% Contender — Dane Dawkins (DDawkins) for Oral Hayden (OHayden) — Form 830 (QG 030) — 20/1, chased 6 furlongs, 3 lengths 3rd to Shooting Star. Group D 100. ML 3/1 (90%). Equipment: Figure-8, Lasix. PP8 is in the favoured middle-to-outside band. Dawkins-Hayden combo. Group D 100 — second-highest in the race.
3PACE ANALYSIS
GENERATIONAL (PP1) "chased 5 furs" — stalker/closer. UNCAPTURED EMPRESS (PP4) "ran evenly" — even-pace. GREAT WAYNE (PP2) "challenged 1 fur out" — closer. BLOOD MOON (PP9) "looked well, 3L 2nd" — stalker. LABAN (PP8) "chased 6 furs" — stalker. No proven front-runner among the top five. This is a 5F straight sprint where draw and break trump pace tactics — middle-to-outside posts close on the rail-zone runners.
4CLASS & FORM ANALYSIS
GENERATIONAL Group D 106 > UNCAPTURED EMPRESS Group D 102 > GREAT WAYNE Group D 101 > LABAN Group D 100 > CATABA Group D 96 > BLOOD MOON Group E 83 > TITAN TEMPO Group E 80 = JUSTIN BIGTIME Group E 80 > MINEOLA Group E 78. Group ratings agree with CRI top spot. Form figure 222 (GENERATIONAL) is the strongest sequence; UNCAPTURED EMPRESS' 153 holds the only recent win. BLOOD MOON's 3L 2nd to The Hot Dancer is the strongest direct class line in the field.
5DRAW ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT COURSE 5 FURLONGS — DRAW IS DECISIVE. Caymanas straight bias (73 races, 2025-2026): PP1 (Rail) 1.3% strike rate (worst). PP1-3 (rail zone) wins 13.7% of all straight races. PP4-8 (middle) wins 47.9% at 9.7% strike rate. PP9+ (outside) wins 38.4%. PP9 itself is the single best post on the grounds (15 wins, 27.3% strike rate). GENERATIONAL PP1 is on the worst slot. GREAT WAYNE PP2 and JUSTIN BIGTIME PP3 are in the rail zone. UNCAPTURED EMPRESS PP4, CATABA PP5, MINEOLA PP6, TITAN TEMPO PP7, LABAN PP8 are favourably drawn (middle band). BLOOD MOON PP9 is the most favoured post.
7VALUE ASSESSMENT
| Horse | CRI% | Fair Odds | ML | Assessment |
|---|
| GENERATIONAL | 36.6% | ~1.7/1 | 2/1 | FAIR VALUE (draw penalty) |
| UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) | 34.5% | ~1.9/1 | 5/2 | FAIR VALUE |
| GREAT WAYNE | 29.2% | ~2.4/1 | 9/2 | OVERLAY (draw penalty) |
| BLOOD MOON | 27.7% | ~2.6/1 | 4/1 | OVERLAY (best draw) |
| LABAN | 25.7% | ~2.9/1 | 3/1 | FAIR VALUE |
8RISK FACTORS
GENERATIONAL has the top CRI%, the highest QG confidence (95%), and form figure 222 — but PP1 on the straight is the worst post on the grounds. The model and the draw disagree on the top selection. UNCAPTURED EMPRESS sits in the favoured middle band but is rated 2.1 points lower. BLOOD MOON has the single most-favoured draw at PP9 — model rates her fourth but the draw inversion at 4/1 is the day's classic value angle. The race is wide-open structurally because the top model number is draw-handicapped.
9CRI VERDICT
TOP PICK: UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA) at 34.5% — Expert Pick from the favoured PP4 middle band on the straight. The 2.1-point CRI gap to GENERATIONAL is more than offset by the draw inversion.
DANGER: GENERATIONAL at 36.6% — Top CRI%, highest QG confidence, form 222, but PP1 is the worst post at Caymanas. Demote on draw.
VALUE: BLOOD MOON at 27.7% — Most favoured PP9 draw, direct class line to The Hot Dancer, Foster aboard. At 4/1 — overlay versus 2.6/1 fair odds.
Confidence: MEDIUM (model and draw disagree on the top selection)